The recent rail stoppage in Canada has raised concerns among economists and analysts regarding the potential economic impact on the country. With Canada’s two biggest freight rail operators, Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City, halting operations due to a labor dispute, the implications for the economy could be significant. While some experts believe that a short-term stoppage may have a minimal impact, a prolonged halt in rail services could lead to billions of dollars in losses, job cuts, and inflationary pressures.
The Conference Board of Canada’s chief economist, Pedro Antunes, warns that an extended rail stoppage could be devastating for the economy. He estimates that a two-week strike could result in a $3 billion loss in nominal GDP this year, with a four-week strike potentially lowering GDP by nearly $10 billion. Additionally, it could lead to 49,000 job losses in the same period. This simultaneous stoppage of the majority of Canada’s rail freight has been described as “growth-negative and inflation-positive” by Robert Kavcic, a senior economist with BMO Capital Markets.
The impact of the rail stoppage on Canada’s economic growth could worsen if the halt in services continues for an extended period. Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, suggests that a one to three-week strike could result in a 0.1% to 0.2% monthly drag on GDP. However, the economic impact would escalate significantly with each passing day beyond three weeks. The world’s second-largest country by area relies heavily on CN and CPKC for shipping commodities and manufactured goods, making a prolonged stoppage particularly damaging.
Canada’s economic growth has been sluggish this year, exacerbated by high-interest rates and rising unemployment. The Bank of Canada began lowering its policy rate in June to stimulate the economy, but the impact of a rail stoppage could hinder these efforts. With weak GDP growth and high levels of mortgage renewals on the horizon, the economy is already facing challenges. An extended rail strike could further worsen economic conditions, leading to inertia in the economy.
While past rail stoppages in Canada have typically been resolved within a week or 10 days, the current labor dispute poses a greater threat to the economy. Economists warn that if the stoppage continues for an extended period, the consequences could be severe. As the country grapples with economic uncertainties, the impact of the rail stoppage underscores the importance of timely resolution in order to mitigate potential losses and job cuts.