Over the last month, the Canadian dollar (CAD) has experienced notable depreciation against most major currencies, with the exception of the Japanese yen (JPY). This weakening of the CAD is reflective not only of the immediate economic pressures but also the anticipatory adjustments made by financial markets. Despite the fluctuation against other currencies, expectations surrounding the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy decisions have played a pivotal role in shaping this dynamic. As the bank prepares to announce its latest interest rate decision today, a significant reduction of 50 basis points (bps) is broadly predicted, aimed at bringing the rate down to 3.75%.
The speculative sentiment surrounding the anticipated rate cut is grounded in the context of Canada’s inflation landscape, which has shown signs of cooling significantly. The current inflation rate has fallen beneath the BoC’s target of 2%. Moreover, although the core inflation rate showed a slight uptick in September to 1.6% year-on-year from a lower 1.5%, it has remained well below the target since April. This persistent deviation from the target prompted concerns regarding the sustainability of a tight monetary policy, especially in light of rising unemployment metrics.
The unemployment rate rose to a noteworthy 6.6% in August, reaching a 34-month high, before experiencing a marginal reduction to 6.5% in September. Such trends suggest that maintaining a stringent monetary policy may no longer be feasible, prompting the BoC to consider easing measures. With the current policy rate at 4.25%, the considerable margin above the core inflation rate (265 bps) has led to increasing pressure for adjustment.
What stands out in the current scenario is how the market has seemingly pre-empted the BoC’s decisions. The CAD’s recent depreciation could indicate that traders have already priced in the expected 50 bps cut. This reflexivity highlights how market participants are often forward-looking, adjusting their positions based on anticipated economic policies rather than merely reacting to past performance.
Interestingly, the AUD/CAD cross pair provides additional insight into this trend. Following a significant uptrend initiated on September 28, 2023, the AUD/CAD has reached the upper boundary of its year-long ascending channel. However, recent fluctuations suggest that the momentum on this pairing may be weakening. As indicated by the bearish breakdown observed in the daily Relative Strength Index, traders should remain cautious about potential reversals. A break above the 0.9377 mark could signal further declines for the CAD, pushing the AUD/CAD pair towards the resistance levels of 0.9520 and 0.9630.
The trajectory of the Canadian dollar in the face of shifting monetary policy reflects broader economic pressures and market sentiments. As the BoC approaches its latest decision, much is at stake, both for policymakers and market participants. With inflation rates struggling to align with targets and unemployment presenting new challenges, the coming days will be pivotal for both the Canadian economy and its currency. Moving forward, stakeholders should prepare for continued volatility and shifting dynamics as official measures are unveiled and the market adjusts accordingly.